Comment Opportunity – NASA Technology Shortfalls

If I had to guess, most of the people who read the site are probably interested in literature, genre fiction, writing, history, and philosophy.  These are the areas which receive the most attention (along with my occasional digressions into geopolitics, like in “Silk Slippers of History”) based on my limited statistical insights, and they compose the bulk of the content which I generate for the site.  However, I’m still a practicing engineer, and I look for occasional opportunities or excuses to share more technical content here on the site, whether that’s through the occasional educational post or through sharing various scientific papers or texts.  In this case, I have an opportunity to share.

Back in 2024, NASA put out a list of technological shortfalls its experts identified and ranked for the coming decade or so of space exploration.  The list was detailed and fairly technical, with over a hundred shortfalls identified and ranked, some of which had significant overlap.  It was not a perfect document, but as a first attempt it was something unique in how it was presented, and it tried to be a challenge to the industry to address these shortfalls.  In conjunction with the shortfalls list, NASA increased its emphasis on its Flight Opportunities program, which includes opportunities for small innovators, not just capital-rich space startups, government labs, and established industry players.  In other words, if you’re a garage tinkerer with a passion for space, the first shortfalls list was a start at directing your efforts towards the problems which NASA considers most important, and a way to help you in gaining access to the resources necessary to advance your efforts to the next steps in development, test, and production.

Now, NASA is working on updating the shortfalls list, and they’ve changed the format in a way that maintains the detail while eliminating some of the overlaps and providing a higher-level basis for the ranking of shortfalls against each other.  Specifically, the list is now going to include thirty-two major objectives, which I’ve listed below in the order they appear in this reference document, and the agency is soliciting comment from all interested people, including members of the public, to help curate and order the list.  Until February 20^th, that means you can provide your input on what technologies and objectives need the most attention to facilitate NASA missions into the next decades (the intent is that the document will be updated every three years).  If you would like to comment, you can find the official information and registration portal here: Shape the Future of Space Technology with NASA.

I’ve added some additional categories to help make sense of the list and its subtext.  The technical goals and shortfalls related to each objective are included in the original reference document’s table, and are more helpful in terms of determining specific technologies to work on developing.  I’ve also made a few comments with regards to the shortfalls.

Rank	Category 1	Category 2	Category 3	Shortfall	Comment
26	O	H		Perform safe, Earth-independent extravehicular activities on the lunar surface	Manned lunar missions will be vital for demonstrating and experimenting with capabilities for a more durable human presence in space, especially for missions destined for locations beyond lunar orbit, but again, the priority here is for technologies which will abet both manned and unmanned missions.
1	I	R	S	Develop infrastructure and capabilities for assets to operate for extended duration in the lunar environment	While an increasing number of missions are visiting the Moon, most are designed to last only a single lunar day.  This is unsustainable for a durable presence on and near the Moon, and solving the challenge of operating through the protracted lunar night will require the development of technologies which will enable other missions, as well.  These technologies will also be relevant to the poles, despite the lunar night being less prolonged there.
14	O	I		Safely, routinely, and precisely land large systems on the lunar surface	Modularity can address many of the large infrastructure requirements of a durable lunar presence, but some systems will unavoidably require the transport of significant mass to and from the lunar surface. This will also allow for the development of technologies for missions like sample returns from other planets.
3	O	I		Deploy, assemble, and construct complex structures on the lunar surface	Modularity is key to space infrastructure, regardless of the location, and the lunar surface makes an ideal location on which to develop this capability. Complex structures will be required for any durable and useful space missions, manned or unmanned.
4	O	R		Produce propellant, consumables, and other usable materials from lunar resources to support human exploration and commercial activities	Launching mass from Earth’s surface is one of the largest impediments to all sorts of space missions.  Leveraging in situ resources will vastly expand the potential missions which can be reasonably accomplished in and beyond cislunar space.
9	I	R	S	Develop infrastructure and capabilities for assets to operate for extended duration in the Martian environment	A durable presence on Mars will require extensive supporting infrastructure. This objective ties directly to the development of such infrastructure for the lunar surface, as well as to ISRU.
13	O	S		Provide communication solutions to assets and crew during missions to Mars	The recent problems with MAVEN highlight the importance of a dedicated communications and PNT solution for Martian missions.
27	O	H		Perform safe, Earth-independent extravehicular activities on the Martian surface	The same logic applies here as applies to lunar extravehicular activities.
15	O			Safely, reliably, and precisely land large systems on the Martian surface	The logical next step after massive lunar landings, and the same logic applies.
8	O	R		Produce propellant, consumables, and other usable materials from Martian resources to support human exploration	Launching mass from Earth’s surface is one of the largest impediments to all sorts of space missions.  Leveraging in situ resources will vastly expand the potential missions which can be reasonably accomplished in and beyond cislunar space.
19	O			Land science payloads on planetary surfaces	Certain bodies, especially Mars, have received more attention from terrestrial robotic visitors than others. Expanding the breadth of bodies on which scientific payloads have landed and can provide the kinds of thorough investigations which the Martian missions have done will drastically improve our understanding of these bodies and, by extension, our understanding of how other star systems might evolve.
2	O			Transport crew and cargo from Earth to the Moon and Mars and back	Improved ability to travel between destinations is key to opening up cislunar space and beyond. This includes both higher velocity and more routine long distance space travel, as well as the ability to lift off from the surfaces of other celestial bodies.
20	F	O		Perform advanced remote sensing and science measurements with improved sensing capabilities and autonomy	Landing science payloads provides significant advantages, but it will always be more complex and dangerous than remote sensing operations. The more information which can be gleaned from remote sensing, the more prepared future, tactile missions will be.
32	O	I		Perform missions with small spacecraft beyond low Earth orbit	Small spacecraft missions beyond LEO are already becoming more common; while they are not yet ubiquitous, it is not a shortfall requiring significant new technological development.
7	O			Operate multi-agent robotic and crewed systems in cooperative planetary surface activities	Networked, multi-agent systems performing cooperatively vastly increases the capability of a given space mission. Satellites providing services to terrestrial users already operate in constellations to deliver capabilities which are meaningless at the individual satellite life; expanding this mindset to planetary activities will enable entirely new types of missions.
16	O	I	S	Provide surface mobility and logistics for crew and assets on planetary surfaces	Mobility and logistics on planetary surfaces are in large part addressed by other shortfalls, but will be vital to ensuring missions are maximally productive. Ingenuity’s scouting for Perseverance is a prime example of how a small increase in mobility can lead to significant operational improvements.
6	F	O		Provide robotic access to subsurface and atmospheric regimes	Exploration past the surface of other celestial bodies, both subsurface and atmospheric, will both contribute to a step-change in our understanding of these bodies and of our solar system, and to the development of key technologies for in situ resource utilization.
22	O	S	I	Efficiently and responsibly manage waste streams during long duration missions	For many locations, especially the Moon, waste and garbage produced by a mission will be effectively permanent, which may not be desirable and will be problematic in the long term. This should be a consideration in the development of infrastructure, but is a relatively low priority on its own, since other shortfalls must be overcome before this can even begin to be a problem
25	H	I		Provide efficient, outfitted habitation capable of long duration missions	Similar to providing foot, water, and supplies, as well as Earth-independent safety and crew health for long duration missions, this technology is too focused exclusively on manned missions to be rated as a higher priority.
24	H	R		Provide adequate food, water, and supplies to ensure crew mental and physical wellbeing during long duration missions	ISS missions have not adequately prepared systems or operators for genuinely independent in-space existence, as would be required for long duration missions. Significant work must be done here, but it should not be prioritized above technologies which are enabling for both manned and unmanned missions.
23	H	S	I	Provide Earth-independent safety and crew health and performance countermeasures during long duration missions	ISS missions have not adequately prepared systems or operators for genuinely independent in-space existence, as would be required for long duration missions. Significant work must be done here, but it should not be prioritized above technologies which are enabling for both manned and unmanned missions.
28	I	S		Provide ground support infrastructure capable of supporting a launch cadence sufficient for continuous lunar access and missions to Mars	This is less a matter of technology shortfall than a matter of scale, which it is reasonable to infer will arise naturally from the demand created by the development of other enabling technologies for such missions.
10	O			Transport and maneuver uncrewed spacecraft for missions in cislunar and deep space	Improved ability to travel between destinations is key to opening up cislunar space and beyond. This includes both higher velocity and more routine long distance space travel, as well as the ability to lift off from the surfaces of other celestial bodies.
11	S	I		Provide tracking and navigation of crew and assets in space	This is a key example of supporting infrastructure and associated standards which are taken for granted on Earth but which do not yet exist for space destinations. If it is not implicit, communication should be added to tracking and navigation capabilities.
12	O			Provide onboard advanced computing capabilities for space operations	Advanced computing enables more complex missions and operations, especially with regards to multi-agent and networked mission systems.
21	O	F		Collect and return preserved science samples and other products to Earth facilities	Mars Sample Return and its cancellation/postponement receives much attention. While it is certainly desirable to retrieve and return these and future samples, this will be enabled by the development of other technologies and capabilities identified in other shortfalls.
17	S	O		Emplace and maintain large, stable space platforms and observatories	Numerous examples of existing large, stable space platforms and observatories already exist, but there is certainly room for improvement, and the scale of such structures will need to increase to support in-space infrastructure development, especially for ISRU.
5	O	R		Autonomously monitor, inspect, maintain, and repair space assets	While manned space exploration receives the most public attention, unmanned space exploration, and space missions in general, are required both to support and prepare for manned missions, and to perform routine activities in space. Autonomy is key to enabling and expanding these missions, especially at increasing distances from Earth, while inspection, maintenance, and repair capabilities increase the durability of the manned and unmanned space presences.
31	O			Protect Earth from destructive impacts from naturally occurring objects near Earth	Tracking efforts are already robust, and protection efforts are, at present, mostly fanciful or extremely long-term. This problem remains too speculative to be rendered a concrete technological shortfall.
30	O			Reduce likelihood and consequence of impacts with in-space objects	While dangerous, this is not, at present, something which is of the greatest concern.  Redundancy is sufficient to reduce the consequences to acceptable levels of risk, and tracking and existing mitigation measures address more dangerous objects.  This will become more of an issue as spacecraft are able to achieve higher velocities.
18	F	O	I	Provide space technology demonstration environments	Increasing the TRL of space technologies is notoriously difficult due to the challenges of providing sufficiently analogous environments, especially for systems strongly affected by differing gravities or other extreme conditions. Whether located on Earth or in space, additional, and higher fidelity, technology demonstration environments will accelerate the overall pace of space technology development and acceptance.
29	S			Develop an affordable and resilient supply chain for space exploration	This is less a matter of technology shortfall than a matter of scale, which it is reasonable to infer will arise naturally from the demand created by the development of other enabling technologies for such missions.